By Lincoln H. Day
First released in 2004. Routledge is an imprint of Taylor & Francis, an informa corporation.
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Additional info for The Future of Low Birth-Rate Populations
Journal of the American Statistical Association 67(338), 347–63. Keyfitz, N. Flieger 1968. World population. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Lederberg, J. 1988. Medical science, infectious disease, and the unity of mankind. Journal of the American Medical Association 260(5), 684–5. V. 1987. Current concepts: immunology: the basic components of the immune system. New England Journal of Medicine 316, 1320–5. M. 1954. People of plenty. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Schoen 1972. Causes of death: life tables for national populations.
Movements in fertility and migration can have some effect on the distribution of the population by age (defined in terms of birthdays), but it takes many years before such movements can have much effect on the actual numbers of the elderly. If old age is defined as commencing at age 65, any direct effect on these numbers arising out of a change in fertility would not take place for another 65 years. So far as migration is concerned, given the usual concentration of migrants in the young adult ages, any direct effect on numbers of the aged would ordinarily not take place for another 20–45 years.
D. can be taken as a guide, it is probable that in all of these countries (except Canada, where the amount spent on education is slightly higher), expenditure on income maintenance for the aged exceeds that for any other social program (education, family benefits, health, or unemployment). D. D. 1). Nor do current demographic trends imply any early relief. Those post-World War II ‘baby boomers’ will enter their 70s in the second decade of the 21st century, their 80s in the third, and their 90s in the fourth.
The Future of Low Birth-Rate Populations by Lincoln H. Day